Background Information
The tense relations between the United States of America and Iran have been brewing for some time now. The US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, popularly known as the “Iranian nuclear deal,” in 2018 and proceeded to impose various sanctions on the country, along with accusing it of sponsoring terrorism activities. The geopolitical tensions were further escalated with the US assassinating a senior Iranian general, Qasem Soleimani, in 2020 in a retaliatory drone strike. In an effort to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the US has developed ties with Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, which have agreed to work closer together against Iran.
Data
The series of events between the US and Iran has raised questions over whether the US and Saudi Arabia are publicly or silently engaged in a war with Iran. The US has a sizable military presence in the Middle East, with 80,000 active-duty troops and another 40,000 civilian contractors spread across the region. US President Donald Trump sought to limit Iranian influence in the region through the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign, which set out to tighten economic sanctions on Iran and disrupt its regional influence. Furthermore, the US has made substantial arms sales to Saudi Arabia, with the two nations signing a $110 billion agreement in 2017 to improve defense cooperation. Although the US has not officially declared a war with Iran, the deployment of troops, arms sales, and the sanctions have all been interpreted as symbolic of an aggressive and hostile stance towards Iran.
Perspectives from Experts
Experts suggest that the US and Saudi Arabia are not necessarily at war with Iran but are instead aiming to contain the country and contain the regional hegemony of Iran by other means. It is seen as a soft war waged through economic, diplomatic and conventional means. For instance, in 2019 Saudi Arabia and the United States held joint naval exercises in the Arabian Gulf to demonstrate their ability to contain Iran in the region. Analysts believe that the naval wargames were created to send a message of deterrence to Tehran. The US and Saudi Arabia have also been vocal in their condemnation of Iran in the international arena, accusing the country of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the region.
Insights and Analysis
Ultimately, it is difficult to establish whether the US and Saudi Arabia are formally at war with Iran or not. While there is no doubt that the US and Saudi Arabia are both seeking to contain Iran and limit its regional influence, the deployment of troops and initiation of economic sanctions can also be interpreted as a form of war. It is clear that the US administration is taking an aggressive stance towards Iran and is using its military force as part of a comprehensive strategy to contain the country’s regional hegemony. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will be successful or whether Iran will be able to respond forcefully.
Military Cooperation
The US and Saudi Arabia have been boosting their military cooperation since 2017. US defense contractors have been selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, with “Made in America” arms estimated to be worth over $85 billion in total. Furthermore, the two countries have held joint military drills in the Persian Gulf as a show of force against Iran. The US has also offered defense support to its allies in the region, such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. With the US providing military support to its regional allies, it can be argued that it is seeking to create a coalition that can contain Iran.
Political Climate
The increasing tensions between the US and Iran have also been affecting the political climate in the region. Iran’s regional influence has been noted to have grown in recent years, while US influence has been decreasing steadily. US allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, have been reluctant to make moves that would further increase tensions with Iran, while other countries, such as Turkey, have become more supportive towards the Iranian agenda in the region. As a result, the US has found itself in the difficult position of balancing its foreign policy objectives in the region while also attempting to avoid further exacerbating existing tensions.
Consequences on the Global Stage
The increasing tensions between the US and Iran have had global consequences, as the two countries are both major players in international politics and the economy. Any form of military action against Iran has the potential to further destabilize the region and could even spark a wider conflict. Furthermore, trade and business activities between the two nations have decreased sharply, with the US imposing economic sanctions on Iran. This has resulted in a decrease in global oil supply and an increase in prices, which has in turn had a detrimental effect on the global economy.
Geopolitical Landscape
An examination of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East reveals that the US has been deepening its ties with Middle Eastern countries that share its agenda and objectives, while also attempting to isolate countries such as Iran. This is evident in the US’s arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its defense support to other allies in the region. While there is no formal declaration of war from the United States against Iran, the US and other Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia are pursuing a comprehensive strategy of containment towards Iran.
Economic Sanctions
The US has been actively imposing economic sanctions on Iran in an effort to curb the country’s nuclear ambitions and reduce its regional influence. Such sanctions have resulted in severely diminished economic activity in Iran, with the country’s GDP declining by over 6% in 2020 alone. The US has also been actively encouraging other countries to impose their own sanctions against Iran, resulting in a further decrease in the country’s economic activity. Furthermore, US sanctions have been estimated to have cost the Iranian economy over $200 billion in lost export revenues.
Political System
The US and Iran’s shifting political and ideological trajectories have further exacerbated existing tensions between the two countries. Iran’s hardline stance against the US and its refusal to make any concessions has aggravated US President Donald Trump, who has adopted a confrontational stance towards the country. The Iranian political system is dominated by its hardline Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his conservative allies, making it increasingly difficult for the US to negotiate or even have a dialogue with the country. With Iran’s political and economic situation worsening due to US sanctions, the country’s leaders continue to adopt a defiant stance towards America.
