Historical Background
Saudi Arabia and Israel have had a contentious relationship since Israel declared its independence in 1948 and surrounding Arab States, which included Saudi Arabia, invaded Israel in an attempt to eradicate it. This conflict was known as the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and it resulted in Israel’s victory and the creation of a Jewish state. Saudi Arabia officially recognized Israel in 1988, and diplomatic ties have grown significantly since then. However, Israel and Saudi Arabia are still technically at odds and maintain a largely hostile relationship.
The animosity between Israel and Saudi Arabia can be attributed to a variety of factors, including religious differences, regional politics, and economic competition. Saudi Arabia is a predominantly Sunni Muslim country, while Israel is predominantly Jewish. As a result, Saudi Arabia has historically declared solidarity with fellow Muslim countries in disputes with Israel, including during the 1948 war. In addition, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been in competition for regional influence in the Middle East, often leading to confrontations. Finally, Israel and Saudi Arabia have faced economic competition in a number of areas, including the production of oil and natural gas.
Official Saudi Arabian Policy
In recent years, Saudi Arabia’s official policy on Israel has become more complex. Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel as a legitimate state and has no official diplomatic relations with them. This is due to the fact that Saudi Arabia still officially regards the conflict with Israel as an unresolved issue and views Israel as an occupying power in the Palestinian Territories.
However, in recent years, Saudi Arabia has pivoted to more open relations with Israel, signaled by Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, announcing that Israelis had the right to their own land in 2018. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has held various meetings with Israeli officials in an attempt to facilitate peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine.
Despite this outward shift, Saudi Arabia still maintains interests in the region that conflict with Israel’s. For instance, Saudi Arabia has been a strong supporter of the Palestinian fight for self-determination, which Israel opposes. This points to a more nuanced view of Israel—one that recognizes its right to exist but is still unable to fully recognize its legitimacy due to the unresolved Palestinian issue.
Behind the Scenes Relations
Despite the lack of official diplomatic ties, there is evidence that points to Israel and Saudi Arabia having closer relations than is publically known. These relations have been driven largely by strategic interests, such as combating mutual enemies like Iran.
The most public indicator of a shift in Saudi Arabia and Israel’s relationship is the appointment of former US General John Abizaid as the US special envoy to resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestine, which is seen as a sign that the two countries are slowly growing closer. There have also been reports of a number of high-level meetings between Israeli and Saudi intelligence officials in countries like Bahrain and Egypt, indicating that there are areas of possible cooperation between the two countries.
This potential cooperation is further underscored by reports of shared intelligence and counterterrorism efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel. These include the apparent ongoing surveillance of Iranian-backed militants, as well as information sharing to combat terror plots.
Saudi Arabia’s Actions and Public Reactions
The growing relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia has provoked mixed reactions from within Saudi Arabia. Some view it positively, noting that it could result in a stronger regional alliance and ultimately, more stability and prosperity for both countries. Others view it negatively, particularly within Saudi’s more conservative circles, as it could eventually lead to the recognition of Israel as a legitimate state. In spite of this, there is an emerging consensus within Saudi Arabia that cooperation with Israel, while difficult, could be beneficial.
Furthermore, some view Saudi Arabia’s decision to open up to Israel as part of its larger reform agenda driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This agenda has seen a number of reforms relating to women’s rights, relations with Iran, and economic liberalization. Critics however point to the fact that Saudi Arabia’s purported shift towards Israel could be used as a way to distract from other issues, including the war in Yemen.
Suliemani Assassination and the Possibility of Open Relations
The recent assassination of an Iranian general by Israeli forces, with alleged prior approval by Saudi Arabia, may be a stepping stone in the path to open diplomatic relations between the two countries. The assassination brought the tensions between Israel and Iran to a boiling point, which strengthened the need for the two countries to join forces and curb the growing threat posed by Iran.
Due to this, it is expected that Israel and Saudi Arabia will continue their tacit cooperation as they attempt to come to a resolution on the Palestinian issue. This may lead to a more open dialogue between the two countries, and result in the eventual recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia.
The Role Of The United States
The United States plays an important role in this dynamic between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US has traditionally been a major supporter and ally of Israel, and it is seen as crucial for brokering relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The US understands that Israel and Saudi Arabia share common interests, and believes that closer relations between the two countries could lead to an improvement in the security situation in the Middle East. The Trump administration has been actively encouraging talks between the two countries, and has gone so far as to arrange backroom meetings between Israeli and Saudi representatives in Washington, DC.
The US understands that Saudi Arabia and Israel may benefit from increased cooperation and normalized relations, and it is likely that the US will continue to encourage and facilitate talks between the two countries.
Potential Barriers To An Open Dialogue
Despite the growing understanding between the two countries, there are still a number of significant obstacles to full diplomatic recognition between Saudi Arabia and Israel. These include religious differences, the unresolved Palestinian issue, and economic competition.
For Saudi Arabia, a major roadblock is the fact that acknowledging Israel as a legitimate state would be viewed by many within the country as a betrayal of Islam and would have significant political repercussions. It is likely that Saudi Arabia will need to address these concerns before officially recognizing Israel.
The unresolved Palestinian issue is also a major impediment to open diplomatic relations between the two countries. As long as the conflict is unresolved, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to take any steps towards recognizing Israel.
In addition, the two countries still face economic competition in areas such as oil and natural gas production. These economic dynamics are largely driven by geopolitical interests, so a full resolution of the conflict between the two countries is unlikely to happen in the near future.
Regional Implications and Opportunities
Despite the obstacles to an official diplomatic relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the potential for closer relations between the two countries has significant regional implications. Improved relations between the two countries could lead to increased regional stability and prosperity, as well as greater collaboration on security and counterterrorism efforts.
Furthermore, improved relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could have a positive impact on Israel’s relationship with other Arab nations in the region, potentially leading to a more open dialogue and cooperation between Arab States.
Of course, there are still many challenges that will need to be overcome before this can occur. Despite this, the potential for improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel appears to be growing and the two countries have the opportunity to collaborate more closely to the benefit of all parties involved.
